MELBOURNE — The narrative was set. Aryna Sabalenka, the reigning Australian Open champion, had bulldozed her way into the final without dropping a set. Her opponent, Elena Rybakina, was the player many believed possessed the most similar, high-octane power game capable of challenging her. For two sets, it was a heavyweight clash worthy of the stage. Then, in the decisive third, something shifted. Sabalenka’s ferocious groundstrokes began to find the tape, her first serve percentage plummeted, and the unforced errors, so ruthlessly contained for a fortnight, came in a torrent. As Rybakina lifted the Daphne Akhurst Memorial Cup for the second time, a familiar, haunting question resurfaced: is Aryna Sabalenka underachieving at the Grand Slams?
The statistics are stark and form the core of the debate. Sabalenka is a three-time major champion, a phenomenal achievement by any measure. Yet, her record in finals sits at 3-6. More tellingly, she has now lost her last *four* Grand Slam finals. Since winning her first major in Melbourne in 2023, she has fallen at the final hurdle at the US Open 2023 (to Coco Gauff), the Australian Open 2024 (to Rybakina), and the US Open 2024 (to Danielle Collins). This pattern of reaching the summit but stumbling on the last step has analysts and fans alike searching for answers.
The Weight of Expectation and the Third-Set Fade
In her post-match press conference in Melbourne this year, Sabalenka was visibly dejected but analytical. "I would say I had a lot of opportunities, and I didn't use them," she stated. "In the third set, I basically, like, capitulated. I didn't put her under pressure. I didn't make her work for it. I just gave her easy balls and let her play her game." The word "capitulated" is a powerful and rare admission from an elite athlete, especially one known for her intimidating, aggressive style. It speaks to a mental and physical drop that has become a concerning trend in these high-stakes matches.
Tennis legend Martina Navratilova, commentating for the BBC, pinpointed the psychological battle. "She got tight," Navratilova said. "The pressure got to her. When you're the defending champion, you're expected to win. Rybakina played with house money—she had nothing to lose and everything to gain, and it showed in their body language."
This contrast is crucial. Sabalenka, for all her improved mental fortitude over the past two years, still seems to carry the heavier burden when a title is within grasp. Her game, built on razor-thin margins of power and precision, requires unwavering confidence. When doubt creeps in, the mechanics can fray rapidly, leading to the kind of error-strewn capitulation she described.
A Dominant Force Between the Finals
To label Sabalenka an underachiever, however, requires ignoring the colossal consistency she has displayed. Her record at the majors since 2021 is remarkably deep. She has reached at least the semifinals in her last seven Grand Slam appearances, a feat of sustained excellence matched only by the very best of her era.
Consider her recent Slam results, which highlight both her dominance and her final hurdle:
- Australian Open 2024: Finalist (lost to Rybakina)
- US Open 2024: Finalist (lost to Collins)
- Wimbledon 2024: Semifinalist (lost to Krejčíková)
- French Open 2024: Semifinalist (lost to Andreeva)
- Australian Open 2023: Champion (defeated Rybakina)
- US Open 2023: Finalist (lost to Gauff)
- Wimbledon 2023: Semifinalist (lost to Jabeur)
This is not the resume of a player who falters under pressure; it is the resume of a perennial contender. She has been the world number one and has spent more weeks in the top two than any other player in the last two years. The "underachievement" narrative stems purely from the conversion rate in finals, a brutal metric that overlooks the sheer difficulty of navigating seven best-of-five-set matches.
The Elite Company and the Missing Clutch Gene
The conversation inevitably turns to comparison. Sabalenka’s 3-6 record in major finals stands in contrast to her great rival Iga Świątek, who is 5-1. Legends like Serena Williams (23-10) or Steffi Graf (22-9) possessed a legendary "clutch gene" that saw them elevate in finals. Sabalenka, for now, appears to have the opposite tendency. Former British number one Tim Henman, speaking on BBC Radio 5 Live, framed it as a challenge of mentality. "She has all the weapons. She's proven she can win them. But to lose four in a row suggests there's a mental block there that she hasn't quite solved."
It’s also worth noting the quality of her conquerors. Rybakina, Gauff, and Collins are all major champions themselves, and each played inspired, near-flawless tennis in those finals. Sabalenka isn't losing to underdogs; she's falling to peers at their peak. This context softens the criticism but doesn't erase the pattern. As seven-time major champion John McEnroe noted, "The great ones find a way, even when they're not at their best. Aryna is still searching for that gear in finals."
Conclusion: A Champion Haunted by Her Own High Bar
So, is Aryna Sabalenka underachieving? The answer is paradoxical. By the standard she has set with her semifinal consistency and her undeniable talent, yes—her 3-6 finals record feels like an imbalance. She has the game to have converted more of those opportunities. Yet, by any objective measure, three Grand Slam titles and counting is a hall-of-fame career. The "underachiever" tag is a product of her own excellence; she has raised expectations so high that anything less than lifting the trophy is scrutinized as a failure.
The key for Sabalenka will be to reframe these losses not as capitulations, but as steps in a longer journey. At 26, she is in her prime. The challenge is no longer about reaching finals—she has mastered that art. It is about rediscovering the ruthless, unthinking aggression that carried her to her first title. As she herself said after the Melbourne loss, "I just have to work harder. That's it. The good thing is that I have been in these situations before, and I know what to do." The tennis world waits to see if she can turn that knowledge into a fifth, and ultimately victorious, final act.