TURIN, Italy — The draw for the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals has been made, and as expected, world number one Novak Djokovic finds himself in the Green Group alongside Jannik Sinner, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Holger Rune. However, the Serbian superstar's participation in the prestigious season-ending tournament remains shrouded in significant doubt, creating a bizarre scenario where the draw was conducted with a player who may yet withdraw.
The uncertainty stems from an abdominal injury Djokovic sustained during his grueling three-set victory over Taylor Fritz at the Paris Masters. Following a medical timeout in that match, Djokovic managed to secure a win but was forced to withdraw from his subsequent semi-final clash against Rune, handing the young Dane a walkover. This withdrawal immediately cast a shadow over his fitness for the Finals, an event he has won a record seven times.
In a statement released in Paris, Djokovic's team explained the decision, saying, "I have a slight tear of the medial belly of the gastrocnemius (calf) muscle which required recovery. I will be focused on my recovery and preparation for the ATP Finals in Turin." The use of the word "slight" offered some hope, but the fact that an MRI scan confirmed a tear has left the tennis world in a state of suspense.
The Vacant Spot and the Waiting List
The structure of the ATP Finals means that the eight qualifiers are the only players eligible to compete. Should Djokovic pull out, his spot would not automatically go to the next player in the ATP Race to Turin rankings. Instead, the first alternate, currently Taylor Fritz, would step into the Green Group, taking over Djokovic's schedule and position in the round-robin stage.
This creates a unique waiting game for several players. Fritz, along with other potential alternates, must remain on standby in Turin, prepared to compete at a moment's notice. The situation is particularly tense given Djokovic's history of recovering from injuries remarkably quickly, meaning a decision could come at any time, even after the tournament has begun.
The players currently designated as alternates for the 2024 ATP Finals are:
- Taylor Fritz (USA)
- Hubert Hurkacz (POL)
- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (ESP)
A Grueling Season and the Quest for History
For Djokovic, the motivation to play in Turin is immense, extending far beyond the $4,801,500 prize money awarded to an undefeated champion. The 36-year-old is in the midst of one of the most dominant seasons in the modern era, having captured three Grand Slam titles at the Australian Open, Roland Garros, and the US Open. A record-breaking eighth ATP Finals title would be the perfect capstone to a year where he has repeatedly defied age and a new generation of challengers.
Furthermore, the year-end world number one ranking is also on the line. While Djokovic is currently in pole position, his main rival, Carlos Alcaraz, is breathing down his neck. A withdrawal from Turin would hand a significant advantage to Alcaraz, who is placed in the Red Group with Daniil Medvedev, Andrey Rublev, and Alexander Zverev. The battle for the coveted year-end No. 1 spot adds another layer of high-stakes drama to Djokovic's fitness race.
The Green Group Breakdown
Should Djokovic compete, the Green Group becomes a fascinating tactical battleground. He would face a rematch with the young Italian sensation Jannik Sinner, who defeated him in the group stage last year and again recently in the Davis Cup. The home crowd in Turin would be fervently behind Sinner, creating an electric atmosphere. Stefanos Tsitsipas, the 2019 champion, and the mercurial Holger Rune, who has a winning record against Djokovic, round out a brutally difficult group. Rune's coach, Boris Becker, is a six-time champion of the year-end event and will have his pupil primed for a deep run.
The Red Group Contenders
On the other side of the draw, the Red Group is no less formidable. Carlos Alcaraz will be making his debut at the ATP Finals after missing last year's edition due to injury. He will have to navigate past the relentless consistency of Daniil Medvedev, the power of Andrey Rublev, and the big-serving, major-tournament pedigree of Alexander Zverev, a two-time champion of this event.
Djokovic's History with Late Tournament Decisions
This is not the first time Djokovic has entered a major tournament while managing an injury. His ability to play through pain and make miraculous recoveries is well-documented. However, with nothing left to prove in a season where he has already secured his place as the most successful male player in history, the calculus may be different. The risk of aggravating a muscle tear ahead of the Australian Open—where he is the defending champion—may outweigh the rewards of competing in Turin.
Tennis analyst and former player Brad Gilbert summarized the sentiment on social platform X, formerly Twitter, stating, "The Djoker situation in Turin is the ultimate cliffhanger. You just never know with him. Part of you thinks there's no way he misses a shot at an 8th title, but the other part knows he's smart enough not to risk long-term damage. Fritz is living out of a suitcase on standby."
The ATP and tournament organizers are undoubtedly hoping for a positive update. Djokovic's presence is a massive draw for fans and broadcasters, and his absence would undeniably diminish the event's star power, despite the incredible depth of the remaining field. All eyes are now on the practice courts at the Pala Alpitour, where any sighting of Djokovic hitting balls will be analyzed for the slightest hint of discomfort.
As it stands, the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals begins with a cloud of uncertainty hanging over its most decorated champion. The draw is set, the groups are known, but one spot remains, in essence, vacant. The tennis world holds its breath, waiting to see if Novak Djokovic will mount another incredible recovery or if the door will swing open for Taylor Fritz to make a dramatic, last-minute entry into the season's final act.